Syria

[Jonb]

Seems like some nasty things happening. Hope it ends soon.

[bez]

I can't see it ending anytime soon unless there is international agreement on military intervention. And that won't happen until Russia and the Chinese are on side, at least the Russians now recognise that they are on the wrong side of the argument.

It is discussed quite frequently with my Saudi colleagues and there are a couple of Syrians in the JV partner head office in Jeddah. It is a mirror of Bahrain where you have a Shia majority ruled by a Sunni minority, Syria is the other way round and most people I talk to are convinced that Iran is providing support to the oppression of the Sunni majority. They are also convinced that Iran is using agitators in Bahrain for the more 'organised' protests which occur from time to time, not the kids that I have posted about before.

The Saudi Government is all for pre-emptive military action against Iran and they have told the Americans so, to the credit of the Americans they didn't think it was such a good idea, well not right now anyway.

In both situations, the biggest risk, is the impulsiveness of the regional Governments. The Americans and the West bang on for ages before actually doing anything, so when a load of cruise missiles drop on your military facilities one night, its not like you hadn't been warned! These guys wake up in the morning and think, right, I think we'll send in the attack jets and tanks tonight; Iran/Iraq war, Iraq invading Kuwait, Israel bombing Palestine, all happened with little or no warning.